Big spike in new Covid-19 cases

The coronavirus situation will worsen further if the government fails to place the highly affected areas on strict lockdown immediately, experts warn as the number of Covid-19 patients continues to surge despite a nationwide shutdown.

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The warning came after the authorities said coronavirus cases in the country crossed the 20,000 mark with a record single-day jump in infections -- 1,202 -- reported yesterday. Besides, 15 more deaths took the death toll to 298.

As many as 10,610 people were found to be infected with Covid-19 in the last 11 days alone, after the first case was reported on March 8.

On the increasing number of infections and fatalities, experts said the shutdown without the enforcement of strict lockdown in the severely affected zones was proving to be futile in curbing the spread of the deadly virus. At the same time, the economy continues to remain under severe strain, affecting the livelihood of millions of people.

"We are losing the battle in both the ways. … It's unfortunate that the government keeps extending the closure without any in-depth analysis," Prof Be-Nazir Ahmed, former director of disease control at the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, told The Daily Star.

Recently, the government has extended the shutdown, which was enforced on March 26, for the sixth time to May 28.

Data from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) shows that Dhaka city remains the worst affected region with 58.11 percent of all Covid-19 cases detected here alone. Also, almost 80 percent of all cases were found in city and urban areas.

Talking on the issue, Prof Muzaherul Huq, former adviser (Southeast Asia Region) of the WHO, said, "Dhaka must be put on strict lockdown without any delay. Otherwise, the hospitals in the country will overflow with patients."

"Those who have contracted the virus are spreading it others. That is why the infection rate is higher in the capital," he said.

"On average, an infected person spreads the virus to three others every day. Any delay [in enforcing strict lockdown] means more people will be infected," he said. "So the first task is to identify and isolate all the infected right away."

Following the reopening of garment factories, a good number of people returned to Dhaka. The presence of traffic on the streets also reportedly increased. As the government plans to ease the shutdown further, chances are there that more people will throng the city, he pointed out.

"If that happens, the infection will increase at an arithmetic rate."

He also said any rise in test numbers and identification of infected patients were co-related.

DGHS data shows a record of 8,582 samples were tested in 41 laboratories across the countries in 24 hours till 2:30pm yesterday.

ZONING INFECTED AREAS

Be-Nazir Ahmed suggested areas with higher infection rates be put on total lockdown. He also advocated for lifting the closure from the unaffected zones, allowing economic activities to run.

Analysing data, he said it seemed 80 percent of the villages were free from coronavirus infection. So the shutdown could be eased there, putting restrictions on the entry of outsiders.

"This will allow many to make up for their financial loses," he said, adding the villages could be marked as "green zone".

The government should then identify the areas where one or two cases were reported. Those areas could be marked as "orange zone", which according to him, would have 15 percent of all cases.

"The government could impose lockdown on this zone from 14 to 42 days until it becomes a green zone," he said.

The rest five percent areas which have the highest number of Covid-19 cases should be marked as "red zone" and be put on strict lockdown. "People from vulnerable groups of these areas can be provided with monthly financial incentives so that they don't feel helpless and act responsibly. This will help improve the situation."

DGHS BRIEFING

At an online briefing yesterday, Prof Dr Nasima Sultana, additional director general (administration) at the DGHS, said the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases stood at 20,065.

As many as 279 patients recovered since Thursday, taking the total number of recovery cases to 3,882, she added.